Things to come....

Every now and again, the Ministry of Defence comes up with one of these papers discussing what the future holds for the world. This latest one comes up with a rather grim vision of the future up to the year 2035. Here are some of the highlights:

There is compelling evidence that climate change is happening, and that warming will continue as a result of human activity. This is likely to result in melting icecaps, thermal expansion of the oceans, and changes to ocean currents. On land we can expect desertification of some regions and permanent flooding of others. Tundra and permafrost are likely to melt and release methane. Land for habitation will be reduced, tropical diseases such as malaria will move north, and severe weather events will become more frequent.

Market forces will continue to subject working people to the ruthless laws of supply and demand and life will, as a result, become "competitive, dynamic and fluid".

The gap between rich and poor is expected to increase and absolute poverty will remain a global challenge. Disparities in wealth will become more obvious due to increased access to information. These disparities will fuel perceptions of injustice, increasing tension and instability, resulting in violent disorder.

It's not all bad news though, the report says it's possible that this may lead to the resurgance of not only anti-captilist ideologies but also to populism and the revival of Marxism.

Transnational and locally based terrorism, particularly Islamist, will continue to derive its energy and justification from political motivations, disadvantage and grievance, extending beyond poorer and more volatile regions to include the marginalized in middle-income and more affluent societies. The casualties and amount of damage inflicted will remain low, compared to other forms of coercion and conflict.

The report predicts huge growth in information and communication technology, and access to it. The report makes an interesting point: " The volume of information will challenge decision-support processes which are based on ‘ordered’ knowledge management and rigid hierarchical organizations." (In other words governments will have to work harder on their propaganda)

The expansion of the media will impact every aspect of life. It says "States and non-state actors, as well as opportunists and other individuals, will seek to dominate the agenda of the 24 hour news media for commercial, political and personal reasons. In conflict and crisis, regimes and power structures will seek to influence perceptions and limit the freedom of action of other political and military leaders, especially those of an opponent."

The golden age of cheap energy has passed according to the report. The continued and increasing demand for oil and gas will result in "highly competitive pricing" and continued enrichment of producer nations - the report takes Russia and Iran as two examples. It says that the producers are likely to allow favoured or politically useful countries to make preferential deals.

And for those of you who scorned the idea that the invasion of Iraq was about oil, here's what the report has to say about Saudi Arabia:

In the case of Iran, it also acknowledges the fact that its large energy reserves will give it considerable strategic leverage, but makes another interesting prediction: " However, from the middle of the period, the country, especially its high proportion of younger people, will want to benefit from increased access to globalization and diversity, and it may be that Iran progressively, but unevenly transforms, with growing prosperity and the pressure of demographics, into a vibrant democracy."

Artificial Intelligence is likely to be used to support decision making and knowledge management by government and corporate entities, but will also create new vulnerabilities that will be exploited by criminals, terrorists or others.

AI may be employed in the military theatre, combined with autonomous, unmanned weapon systems to enable the application of lethal force without human intervention.

Weaponisation of space may lead to orbital strike weapons capable of attacking ground targets, although this is seen as unlikely before 2020. However states will develop capabilities for inhibiting the use of space through the use of electromagnetic or missile systems.

Neutron weapons, which destroy organic matter but not infrastructure may be seen as a weapon of choice for ethnic cleansing in an increasingly populated world.

Electromagnetic pulse weapons which can destroy electronic devices over a selected area will become operational by 2035.

By 2035 the report envisages information chips wired directly to the brain with entertainment and information beamed directly to the user's senses. Further than that, it suggests that other technological developments may enable synthetic telepathy, including mind-to-mind communication.

The report makes an intriguing suggestion that the middle classes may become a revolutionary class, taking the place of the proletariat in Marx's vision. Stuck between the super-rich and growing urban under-classes, they may unite, "using access to knowledge, resources and skills to shape transnational processes in their own class interest."